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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

A trough of low pressure located about 250 miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while
the system system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while
the system is near the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about
midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next day or
two while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 13.9, -68.1 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017


000
WTNT34 KNHC 191447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN
YESTERDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western
Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized,
and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017


000
WTNT24 KNHC 191447
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.  WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  68.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  68.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  67.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N  74.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.9N  78.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N  82.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N  91.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N  93.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  68.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017


000
WTNT44 KNHC 191449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

Harvey has become less organized in visible imagery since this
time yesterday, with the convective pattern becoming elongated and
the circulation looking less well defined.  In addition, an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not close the
circulation at 850 mb, but was able to close the circulation at 1000
ft.  The plane has not yet reported tropical-storm-force winds, but
the northwestern quadrant was not well sampled.  Thus, the initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 275/19.  A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast
westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36-48 hours.
Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of
Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey should
pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross
Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and
based on this the new forecast track follows the guidance with only
minor changes from the previous track.

The ongoing moderate vertical shear should continue for another
12-24 h or so, and combined with the current lack of organization
should allow at best only slow strengthening.  After that, the
upper-level winds are expected to become favorable for strengthening
as the system moves over the deep warm waters of the western
Caribbean.  The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in
calling for a peak intensity of 60 kt just before the system
reaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula.  Harvey should weaken as it
crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula between 72-96
h, followed by some re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche.  It
should be noted that any additional loss of organization in the next
12-24 h would result in the cyclone degenerating into an easterly
wave.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 13.9N  68.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 14.4N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 14.9N  78.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 15.7N  82.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 17.5N  88.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 19.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 19.5N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   8(33)   1(34)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  33(35)   1(36)   X(36)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:56:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 15:26:20 GMT